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Free probability calculator

Will you get paid?

60-second recovery probability for any overdue invoice. Industry-baseline math built on CCAA, ACA International, and Atradius payment data. Top 5 next-step recommendations emailed to you.

CCAA ACA International Atradius Federal Reserve SBCS
Estimated recovery -- CALCULATING

Your invoice

Today12 mo24 mo36+ mo
Estimated recovery probability
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CALCULATING
confidence band: -- to --
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Methodology

Where the numbers come from.

The aging baseline comes from the Commercial Collection Agencies of America's published Probability of Collection Index. Recovery percentages drop logarithmically with aging. The B2B / B2C split, invoice-size modifiers, and prior-attempt penalties are derived from ACA International benchmarks and the Atradius Payment Practices Barometer. The result is then clamped to a defensible 3% to 95% range.

This is industry-baseline math. Your actual recovery depends on the debtor's specific situation, the state's legal regime, your communication history, and factors no calculator can model. The top-5 recommendations are derived from rule-based pattern matching on your inputs and are intended as starting points, not legal advice.

ti3 is a software company. We build first-party AR recovery software. We sell that software, which means the recommendations naturally point toward our product where the product is the right tool. The probability math itself is third-party-sourced and independent of which software you use.

Sources

FAQ

The honest questions.

How accurate is this?

The aging curve is the most accurate input (CCAA publishes their methodology). The multipliers for invoice size, prior attempts, and dispute status are derived from industry benchmarks and rule-of-thumb practice in the commercial collection field. Together they produce a useful probability estimate within roughly 10 percentage points of the actual outcome for typical small-business invoices. Edge cases (very large balances, unusual industries, complex disputes) need human judgment beyond what a calculator can do.

Where does the data come from?

The four primary sources are cited above. They are third-party industry bodies and government surveys, not internal ti3 numbers. As ti3 builds its own recovery dataset (target: 200+ closed accounts by Q3 2026), the weights will be recalibrated against ground truth and the methodology page updated.

Is this legal advice?

No. The recommendations reference legal concepts (statute of limitations, FDCPA, IRS Topic 431, 1099-C) where they're relevant to the action being recommended, but they're not a substitute for counsel. For any account where you're considering legal action or a 1099-C filing, consult a lawyer or CPA.

What's your bias?

ti3 sells first-party AR recovery software. We have a commercial interest in recommending first-party approaches. The probability math itself uses third-party-sourced industry data, so the number is independent of which software (if any) you use. The recommendations are biased toward first-party recovery because that's what we believe works best for the small-business segment; if your situation calls for a collector or a lawsuit, the recommendation will say so.

Do you save my inputs?

The inputs are sent to our server to generate your emailed report. We retain them tied to your email so we can follow up if you ask, and so we can improve the calculator over time. We don't share inputs with third parties. See our privacy policy for the full details.